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The S&P 500 adjusted for inflation
Lots of happy news last week about The S&P 500 following the Dow Jones 30 Industrials and hitting record highs. Or did it? The chart above shows two series, the S&P 500 in nominal terms and...
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A horrible jobs number
came out this AM, even though we saw unemployment dip to 7.6% what the happy news reports (rather conveniently) omit is the simple fact that at the same time the participation rate dropped from 63.5%...
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Employment has flat lined
Lots of attention is focused on the unemployment rate, with minor reductions pointed to as evidence that things are “getting better”. I thought it would be interesting to look not at unemployment but...
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Hey American consumer feeling any poorer?
You should be. Between shrinking wages and low but relentless inflation the wealth of the American consumer has been steadily eroded. From time to time I’ve looked at the consumer price index, or CPI...
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A rather anemic recovery
The amount of money a business entity has left after all costs have been paid – corporate profits after tax – indicates the overall health of the economy. As these profits grow then businesses are...
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America’s finance economy
Pre credit crunch, many folks acknowledged The United States had what is called a FIRE economy, or one that derives a significant amount of revenue from the FInance and REal estate sectors. Many...
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Housing is booming, right?
Wrong. The Fed is buying. But let’s look deeper: the latest news on US housing was promising, with prices gaining some 9.3% YOY in 20 cities. An old expression claims as housing goes so goes the US...
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What a recovery
Most of the happy news about GDP looks at quarterly changes, but a broader perspective reveals a different story. The chart above shows real1 GDP from January, 1947 to the present. I’ve calculated the...
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A trillion dollars lost
The chart above shows US Gross Domestic Product for the period 1973 to 2013 (GDP, thick black line), with recessions indicated by vertical gray bars. For each period of economic expansion I’ve added a...
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Feeling good about the economy?
While the media continues an incessant stream of happy news reiterating the mantra “things are getting better”, I try to look at a broad range of indicators to get a true idea of the state of economy....
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Part time employment is booming
There has been lots of media speculation regarding the impact of the Affordable Care Act (aka, “Obamacare”) and employment in The United States. Specifically, the law requires businesses employing...
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Temporary employment is booming
Lots of happy news in the US media recently about unemployment, specifically the continuing improvement in jobless claims. Its probably best to look at the composition of the new jobs rather than then...
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Looking for work
Lots of happy news in the (where else?) US media about unemployment. “Things are getting better” is the underlying mantra, but if you’re unemployed and looking for work is this true? The chart above...
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Where are the manufacturing jobs?
Lots of happy news in the US media recently about manufacturing in The United States, some suggesting we are the cusp of resurgence, arguing building goods in China no longer makes sense , others...
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An already jittery market …
Overnight Chinese markets dropped some 7%, after news that Chinese manufacturing contracted for a 10th straight month. Some analysts now suggest China – who reportedly contributes between 0.5% to 1% of...
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Jobs up but what about wage growth?
The United States reported a fairly decent jobs number today, with a surge of 292K positions added. BLS release is here should you wish to read it direct from The Source. This is, of course, before the...
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So who is lying then?
Last week Mr Obama went on what some might call a victory lap, crowing about his Administration’s economic accomplishments, all but calling those who criticise the current state of the American economy...
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Poverty in The United States
The Administration recently suggested that ‘ “Anybody who says we are not absolutely better off today than we were just seven years ago, they’re not leveling with you, they’re not telling the truth.” ‘...
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How do you pronounce Trump trade?
I’ve presented two charts below, first The US Dollar Index. I tend to watch this index as its a broad measure of The US Dollar’s exchange rate against a basket of six of America’s most important...
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A tale of two Christmas’
The 2016 Christmas run up saw the shares of retailers ( tracked by XRT, first chart ) rise an anaemic 1%, while in 2017 the same stocks BOOMED, soaring some 5.17 during the last two weeks of December....
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