Clik here to view.
Who pays the taxes?
With all this talk about the fiscal cliff, automatic spending cuts and, of course, tax hikes, I thought I’d start to look at the issue by means of the data. I’ve been digging into the revenue side a...
View ArticleClik here to view.
How about the consumer?
An interesting report from McKinsey & Co. speculates that household “deleveraging” – in other words, paying down debt – is coming to an end. They further speculate by the middle of 2013 this part...
View ArticleClik here to view.
How now for gold?
With the recent drop in US share prices and simultaneous run up in gold prices the yellow metal now is slightly ahead of equities, up some 10.60% YTD compared to the S&P 500 which is up 10.28%, so...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Housing again
New home starts surged last month, with many citing a shrinking supply of distressed and foreclosed inventory but I’m not sure this picture is complete The chart above shows two series: first, housing...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The Dow / Gold ratio
Since the onset of the credit crunch central banks globally have injected unprecedented amounts of liquidity into the global financial system. Buy doing so central banks are trying to stimulate the...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Savings and Personal Income oh my !
Interesting news about recent increases in consumer spending but where is the money coming from? The chart above shows savings (GPSAVE, black line) compared to disposable personal income (DSPI, blue...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Cost structures are rising …
I’ve been looking at money flows in the United States, specifically at how companies are raising money in the current business conditions. The chart above shows the amount of Commercial Paper...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Wages are growing nowhere
The chart above shows year on year percentage change of the average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees (i.e., non management staff, AHETPI, black line), measured monthly. I’ve...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The stagnant job market
Anyone reading this blog knows that I’m an avid follower of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Job Opening and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data. BLS’ most recent update was released this...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Where’s the money?
Lots of happy news in the media recently about a rebound in housing; existing home sales rose 2.1%, construction spending increased 1.4% and developers are acquiring large parcels of relatively remote...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Approach a stall
As the year draws to a close, with everything that’s going on – The US Fiscal Cliff, The Fed’s announcement of Quantitative Easing 4 and renewed fears of a recession in The United States – I thought...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Where is the inflation?
With all the various incarnations of Quantitative Easing last Friday’s release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers was very interesting. Specifically, if you believe the official numbers (and...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Goverment stewardship of US taxes
I’ve been looking at a lot of Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data for a client lately, and for my own purposes started looking at longer term trends regarding what the US government gets up to with...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Easy money forever?
The Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI) is a little known but very fascinating metric. Created and maintained by The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the ANFCI is calculated as a...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Will consumer debt kill the recovery?
The chart above shows two series: first the amount of consumer loans outstanding at commercial banks (CCLACBM027SBOG, black line) compared to the personals savings rate (GPSAVE_PC1, blue line), while...
View ArticleClik here to view.
A mediocre economic recovery
While metrics such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are useful in understanding economic performance, it is only a single measurement (with well known flaws) and must be augmented to more properly...
View ArticleClik here to view.
What happened to America investing in America?
The chart above presents gross private domestic investment (GPDIC96, black line, real aka “inflation adjusted” terms, billions of chained 2005 Dollars, measured quarterly with an annual rate reported)...
View ArticleClik here to view.
A bubble in US equities?
I’ve previously written about collapsing volume on the NYSE even as stocks hit news highs and we’re seeing more of the same; the chart above shows S&P500 prices ($SPX, red line) compared to...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Is the surge in retail sales sustainable?
In what appeared to be good economic news, retail sales surged 0.6% in February but is this sustainable? The chart above shows two series Retail Sales Excluding Food (RSXFS, measured monthly, black...
View ArticleClik here to view.
US equity markets why so complacent?
The chart above tracks the VIX (aka, “volatility index” or “fear index”, graphed as VIXCLS, black line) from June 1st, 2007 to the New York market close yesterday. In other words looking from shortly...
View Article
